Here’s the latest on El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) based on recent authoritative briefings:
The current signal is shifting toward ENSO-neutral, with conditions likely remaining neutral through the Northern Hemisphere spring and into early summer 2026. This is the result of NOAA CPC/NCEP/NWS updates and related climate summaries, which note the end of La Niña and a transition to neutral, with a growing possibility of El Niño developing later in 2026 if warming in the central/eastern Pacific intensifies. [NOAA CPC/NCEP/NWS guidance and Climate.gov ENSO updates]
Outlooks suggest a higher chance of El Niño forming from mid-2026 (May–July window) and persisting into late 2026, contingent on oceanic warming and atmospheric coupling in the tropical Pacific. Probabilities in the most recent outlooks place emphasis on a transition from neutral to El Niño later in the year if SSTs in the Niño-3.4 region rise above thresholds. [Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion; Climate.gov ENSO page]
ENSO’s global impacts vary by phase and region, but neutral conditions generally imply a mixed set of typical patterns with fewer extreme ENSO-driven anomalies than strong El Niño or strong La Niña events. Regions commonly affected include parts of North America, South America, Africa, and Asia, with rainfall and temperature impacts linked to the evolving state of the Pacific. [NOAA ENSO overview; Climate.gov summary]
Illustration: A typical ENSO progression recently has moved from La Niña to ENSO-neutral, potentially toward El Niño in 2026, with the timing and strength dependent on ongoing ocean-atmosphere coupling. If you’d like, I can pull the latest official outlooks and produce a concise timeline graphic showing recent phases and projected probabilities.
Would you like a short, cited timeline or a simple chart comparing ENSO phases and their most likely global impacts for 2026?
el nino southern oscillation alert Latest Breaking News, Pictures, Videos, and Special Reports from The Economic Times. el nino southern oscillation alert Blogs, Comments and Archive News on Economictimes.com
economictimes.indiatimes.comEl Niño and La Niña Information
www.weather.govClimate scientists estimate the warm weather pattern could begin to develop as early as May.
www.cbsnews.comCurrent Status April 10, 2025 Final La Niña Advisory After just a few months of La Niña conditions, the tropical Pacific is now ENSO-neutral, and forecasters expect neutral to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer. Latest Official ENSO Update … ENSO April 10, 2025 After just a few months, La Niña conditions have ended and the tropical Pacific has returned to neutral conditions. Our blogger gives you the scoop on La Niña's end and the forecast for the rest of 2025. Read More ENSO...
www.climate.govThe El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion, released on 09 April 2026 by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC)/NCEP/NWS, the “Final La Niña Advisory” was issued alongside an “El Niño Watch,” with ENSO-neutral conditions favored through April–June 2026 (80% chance) before El Niño is likely to emerge in May–July 2026 (61% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026.
iri.columbia.eduLatest update on this winter's powerful El Niño says it could last several more months
www.cbsnews.comThe ENSO Blogs landing page.
www.climate.govENSO is a significant climate phenomenon that involves changes in sea-surface temperatures (SST) in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
vajiramandravi.comAn analysis of data collected by the Global Tropical Moored Buoy Array, led by Senior Scientist Michael McPhaden, discusses unusual developments in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation cycle over the past decade, capped off with a rare three-year or “triple dip” La Nina during 2020 – 2023. This recent period of extended cold in the tropical Pacific has upended theories of what causes multi-year La Niñas, while highlighting potential influences from the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans as well...
www.pmel.noaa.gov